Automotive

Studiu Euler Hermes: Un drum greoi pentru sectorul auto, între volume slabe, reglementări stricte, inovații perturbatoare și incertitudini comerciale

postat 17 iul. 2019, 23:14 de Emil Francu

București, 18 iulie 2019. Euler Hermes, liderul global în asigurarea de credit comercial şi recunoscut specialist în domeniul garanţiilor şi al colectării creanţelor, prezintă un studiul privind evoluția sectorului auto, care are o valoare la nivel mondial de 5.800 miliarde de dolari și are un risc mediu.

 

În 2018, la nivel mondial vânzările de autoturisme și producția de automobile au înregistrat primele scăderi din ultimii nouă ani, iar 2019 se așteaptă să rămână provocator pentru industria automobilelor.


Vânzările de vehicule noi ușoare ar trebui să scadă în SUA (-2% până la 16,8 milioane de unități), din cauza finanțării mai puțin susținute și a unei concurențe sporite cu piața second-hand în creștere. În China, cea mai mare piață de autoturisme (reprezentând mai mult de 29% din vânzările globale anul trecut), vânzările au început în 2019 într-un ritm lent și ar trebui să beneficieze treptat doar de o redresare a încrederii consumatorilor în ceea ce privește stimulentele fiscale și mandatele de emisie - două aspecte care au condus la prima scădere a vânzărilor după aproape trei decenii, în 2018. Piața UE se va strădui să evite stagnarea pe tot parcursul anului și va avea performanțe lunare volatile în vânzări, comparativ cu turbulențele de anul trecut cauzate de introducerea Procedurii de testare a vehiculelor ușoare armonizate la nivel mondial (WLTP).


Înăsprirea reglementărilor, de la interzicerea traficului și restricțiile de acces în orașe la standarde stricte în ceea ce privește poluarea, continuă să intensifice tranziția pieței. Presiunea este ridicată în Europa, prin punerea în aplicare a certificării privind emisiile ecologice de transport rutier (RDE) în septembrie 2019, dar și țintele de CO2 stabilite pentru 2020, 2025 și 2030 cu amenințări de sancțiuni financiare. Experții Euler Hermes se așteaptă la o scădere mai rapidă a vânzărilor de motorină și la o mai rapidă lansare a noilor modele conforme cu noile reglementări, care vor menține înregistrările globale ale VE (vehicule electrice) la o creștere de două cifre. Cu toate acestea, costurile aferente de cercetare și dezvoltare, implementare industrială, marketing se bazează pe marjele de funcționare și pot determina anumiți actori să își adapteze portofoliile și capacitățile de producție prin investiții și inovare în mașini conectate și autovehicule autonome.


În același timp, sectorul rămâne în continuare vulnerabil la turbulențele majore provocate de politica comercială Brexit și SUA, amenințările cu privire la tarifele SUA la importurile de automobile din UE (până la 25%) și la potențialele schimbări din China. Ne așteptăm ca negocierile să se finalizeze până la sfârșitul primului semestru al anului 2019. Rezultatele sunt incerte, dar au potențialul de a tulbura comerțul internațional cu autovehicule și strategiile actuale de punere în aplicare și interconexiunile lanțului de aprovizionare ale actorilor globali.

 

Sectorul auto în România

Oarecum în contradicție cu evoluțiile din statele dezvoltate, în România sectorul auto trece printr-o perioadă favorabilă, cu creșteri consecutive în ultimii cinci ani ale achizițiilor de mașini noi la nivel local. Plusul de 20% înregistrat în 2018 fiind urmat de 6% creștere în primul trimestru al anului 2019 ar putea marca încă un an pozitiv. Principala pârghie de creștere rămâne exportul, numărul de mașini exportate depâșind semnificativ numărul de mașini importate an de an, asigurând un excedent comercial semnificativ în balanța de plăți.

Revenind la tendințele globale, propensitatea consumului către mașinile pe benzină în dauna celor diesel se confirmă și local, ponderea primelor crescând spre 2/3 din total față de circa 55% în 2018. De asemenea, mașinile electrice și hibrid cresc ca pondere, dar încă nu dețin un volum semnificativ.

 

Impactul cel mai puternic asupra industriei auto europene în următorii ani este foarte probabil să apară nu datorită Brexit și nici ca urmare a impunerii unor restricții tarifare în relația cu Statele Unite, ci din alinierea la propriile regulamente ale Uniunii Europene de limitare a emisiilor de carbon.

 

Astfel, celor 20% necesar a fi reduse până în 2021 li se adaugă încă 15% până în 2025, respectiv 37.5% până în 2030 – peste așteptările inițiale (-30%) ale producătorilor.

 

În lumina acestor constrângeri, a necesității prezervării marjelor într-o industrie ciclică aflată într-un stadiu târziu al ciclului economic, așteptările pentru piața europeană sunt de creștere cu 2.6% a prețului mediu în perioada 2019-2020, respectiv o scădere a înregistrărilor de mașini noi cu 3.1%, ceea ce ar echivala cu o scădere de aproape 3 miliarde EUR în vânzările de mașini.

 

Cu o pondere numai a Germaniei de peste 40% atât în exporturi, cât și în importurile de vehicule cu motor, România nu poate rămâne imună la schimbările mai sus estimate la nivel continental. Deși producătorii globali de automobile au acumulat rezerve-tampon importante începând cu 2010, iar în cazul celor activând în Europa începând cu anul 2014 – creștere anuală de 16% în vânzări, respectiv 22% în profituri operaționale între 2015-2018 – presiunile pe venituri și marje se vor intensifica.

 

Pentru menținerea indicatorilor financiari în limite rezonabile, este de așteptat ca producătorii să-și exercite în ultima instanță forța de negociere superioară în relația cu furnizorii captivi atât la nivelul marjelor de profit, cât și al gestionării capitalului circulant.

 

La ce trebuie să fim atenți?

• Scăderea vânzărilor de vehicule ușoare pe piețele de top din SUA, China, Europa și declinul rapid al vehiculelor diesel.

• Momentul de creștere a vehiculelor electrice în Europa și schimbările în mediul de reglementare, în special subvențiile publice pentru vehiculele electrice și interzicerea motoarelor cu combustie internă.

• Inovarea în conducerea autonomă și în noile servicii de mobilitate, care stimulează cheltuielile pentru cercetare și dezvoltare, investițiile în active fixe, piața de fuziuni și achiziții și parteneriatele cu diverși furnizori.

• Strategiile producătorilor și ale lanțului de aprovizionare ca răspuns la incertitudinile Brexit și la amenințările SUA asupra tarifelor.

 

Subsectoare:

Producătorii de automobile: Producătorii se confruntă cu o presiune puternică din partea concurenței globale: diversificarea geografică, lansările de modele inovatoare și ajustările costurilor de operare rămân o strategie esențială pentru a proteja profitabilitatea și a finanța cheltuielile pentru cercetare și dezvoltare, capex, M&A și parteneriate necesare pentru transformarea industriei.

 

Furnizori de autovehicule. Cel mai adesea furnizorii înregistrează o creștere mai mare a veniturilor și a rentabilității comparativ cu producătorii. Tranziția de pe piață este de a crește conținutul tehnic pe mașină și de oportunități, dar pentru a reduce drastic necesitatea unor componente (adică a motorinei).

 

Punctele forte ale sectorului auto

·         Intensificarea apetitului consumatorilor pentru vehiculele alimentate cu energie alternativă și noile servicii de mobilitate.

·         Diversitatea nevoilor locale (adică mașini de oraș în China, pickups în Thailanda).

·         Cererea dinamică pe piețele emergente (o creștere a clasei de mijloc, o rată scăzută a echipamentelor), susținând perspectivele pe termen mediu ale pieței.

·         Cererea de modelele premium și vehicule sportive (SUV) mai mari, care susțin profitabilitatea producătorilor de automobile.

·         Expertiza actorilor stabili pe probleme de diferențiere (de exemplu design), de producție și de lanț de aprovizionare.

 

Punctele slabe ale sectorului auto

·         Încetinirea nevoilor de reînnoire și a prevalenței de conducere mai mici în rândul tinerei generații în orașele mari ale piețelor mature.

·         Propunerea de valoare a vehiculelor electrice pe termen scurt, datorită costului bateriei, gamei de acționare și extinderii rețelei de încărcare.

·         Intensificarea cerințelor de mediu (poluare, emisii de CO2) care necesită investiții grele și care determină prețuri ridicate la mașini.

·         Dependența de vânzările de mașini noi pe baza măsurilor publice (subvenții, scutiri de taxe), a politicilor monetare (costul împrumutului), a prețurilor petrolului (costurile de funcționare) și a prețurilor pe piața de mâna a doua.

·         Creșterea competiției de către giganți și start-up-uri în domeniul tehnologiilor de conducere conectate și autonome.

 

Principalii jucători:

Țara

Rol

Risc sector

Statele Unite

#1 importator

#2 producător

#3 exportator

A

Risc scăzut

Germania

#1 exportator

#2 importator

#4 producător

C

Risc sensibil

China

#1 producător

#3 exportator

B

Risc mediu

Japonia

#2 exportator

#3 producător

A

Risc scăzut

A DOMINANT 48V ELECTRIFICATION STRATEGY REQUIRES STANDARDS

postat 11 sept. 2018, 02:43 de Emil Francu

The amount of carbon dioxide produced by new cars rose last year - reversing at least seven years of steady declines of GHGs in many countries.
Fortunately there is a fix that not only meets the costing of a diesel derivative, but is also relatively quick and easy to implement – the 48V Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle (MHEV).

Electrification in the Aftermath of the Diesel Scandal

postat 11 sept. 2018, 01:56 de Emil Francu

The first series production cars to incorporate 48 V technology in one form or another have hit the road in recent times, and further integration of 48 V architecture is expected in the very near future.

Will Robocars Need More than Ethernet?

postat 16 aug. 2018, 07:14 de Emil Francu

Denso joins HDBaseT Automotive
PARIS — A cross-industry group promoting a standard called HDBaseT announced last week that Denso, a big tier one in Japan, has joined the group as a “contributor member.”
HDBaseT, originally developed as a consumer electronics and commercial connectivity standard for transmission of uncompressed HD video, audio, power, home networking, Ethernet, USB, and some control signals over a CAT 5 cable, now has an automotive variant called HDBaseT Automotive.
The new automotive connectivity standard, touted as a high-throughput pipe at zero latency for ADAS, will enable the transmission of “up to 6 gigabit per second tunneling of video & data, with native networking capabilities over 15m/50ft of a single unshielded twisted pair cable,” according to the group.
Because HDBaseT Automotive is still in its early days, the recruitment of Denso is significant. Daimler is the only car OEM to publicly embrace the technology for in-vehicle connectivity for advanced infotainment, ADAS, and telematics systems. Valens Semiconductor, an Israeli fabless chip company, is thus far the only chip vendor committed to offering HDBasT Automotive compliant silicon.
Proponents of HDBaseT believe that the new automotive variant is a missing link in the discussion of future connected and autonomous vehicles. Given the vastly expanded volume of data passing through vehicles, HDBaseT seems to make sense.
But here’s the thing. Are we now saying that the Automotive Ethernet falls short of handling multi-gigabit bandwidth at minimum latency?

In-vehicle connectivity fatigue
When it comes to internal communications network technologies, carmakers today have plenty of choices. For example, Ethernet is already being considered as a replacement for legacy bus protocols such as MOST, a high-speed multimedia interface, and FlexRay, a general purpose high-speed protocol with safety-critical features.
Bluetooth Low Energy and High Speed 802.11ac Wi-Fi are popping up inside vehicles to connect smartphones and wearables. Wired broadband MHL is being used for rear-seat infotainment.
Meanwhile, legacy buses such as CAN and LIN continue to exist as vehicle control network protocols.
Connectivity technologies originally developed for non-automotive applications are also creeping into the mix. They include Low-Voltage Differential Signaling (LVDS) which operates at low power and can run at very high speeds using inexpensive twisted-pair copper cables, and Serializer/Deserializer (SerDes), a pair of functional blocks commonly used in high speed.
In-vehicle networking solutions (Source: Renesas)  In-vehicle networking solutions (Source: Renesas)
Given this plethora of options already available, how eagerly might automakers warm up to HDBaseT Automotive? Ian Riches, director for the Automotive Electronics service at Strategy Analytics, is already sensing the automotive industry’s “nervousness and reluctance” as carmakers see HDBaseT Automotive as “yet another standard.” Riches said, “Many OEMs are just beginning to get their heads around Ethernet…”
However, there are several unique and redeeming factors about HDBaseT.
Danny Kim, partner and director of advisory services at VSI Labs, pointed out that HDBaseT allows for both point-to-point and daisy-chain connectivity. This daisy chain connection, he said, “enables much less total connections (cost, better user experience).” Further, “It’s bi-directional, so once there’s a connection failure or cable failure, all the devices connected to the cable can still operate/stay connected (redundancy).”
Granted, a host of sensors in autonomous vehicles would generate a lot of data. AVs will demand a fat pipe. But how much fatter compared to that of Automotive Ethernet, and why would the new connectivity standard need to cover so long a distance — as much as 50 feet?   
Micha Risling, senior vice president and head of the automotive business unit at Valens Semiconductor, told us, “It comes down to three things.”
First, “as more and more devices are introduced (e.g., rear and front cameras, mirror replacement cameras, displays including those for passenger, driver, rear seat, sensors such as radars and lidars, smart antennas), the amount of data is increased exponentially,” Risling said. “But more important, this data needs to be transmitted and processed in a short amount of time,” 
Click here for larger image (Source: Valens Semiconductor)  stressing that “any delay can be life-threatening for ADAS data.”
Second, he noted, “Video performance is a major issue in autonomous cars, both in terms of resolution (quality) and latency, as any problems in video delivery can also have fatal consequences. Higher video resolution demands more bandwidth, with near-zero latency in the case of cars, which demands fat pipes.”
Third, he added, “Although it seems that 15m/50ft is a long distance in cars, it really isn’t when you take into consideration that the cables are not going straight from point A to B, but rather, under the seats, over the doors, around the wheels, not to mention the engine bay and other elements in the car.”

HDBaseT vs. BroadR-Reach
So, is HDBaseT meant to leapfrog BroadR-Reach? Or, more specifically, which in-vehicle cables will HDbaseT replace? HDBaseT is focused on multigigabit transmissions of different types of data. BroadR-Reach is based on Automotive Ethernet, at 100Mbps symmetrical speed. Risling said, “HDBaseT can now deliver 2 gigabit per second bandwidth over unshielded twisted pair — a cheaper, more flexible and easier to install cable (with future versions enabling 4/8/12/16Gbps).”
He added, “Another major advantage of HDBaseT over Automotive Ethernet is that the technology is both symmetric and asymmetric, which can be optimized for camera/sensor links (a symmetric link is not optimized for video delivery, which usually needs higher speed one way only).” In other words, “HDBaseT will be integrated wherever higher speeds and convergence are needed.”
He explained that some basic controls, that today use CAN or MOST technologies, will not necessarily be replaced, as they do not need higher speed connectivity, but they can all be tunneled together through an HDBaseT link toward the ECUs (shortening and reducing the number of cables). “As we move towards more connectivity devices — displays, modems, cameras, and sensors — we will need a technology like HDBaseT to enable the connectivity among the devices, between the devices and the high-performance computers in the car, and among the computing elements themselves.”

Where in a vehicle will HDBaseT go first?
While declining to name its automotive customers, Risling told us that Valens is already working with OEMs and tier ones in specific use cases for HDBaseT Automotive.
Where in a vehicle will HDBaseT go first? “It will most likely be adopted first for infotainment use cases, such as USB connectivity,” he said. There’s also “door connectivity,” he added. “HDBaseT can reduce the 20+ cables going from the door hinge for mirrors, sensors and audio, to just one cable.”
HDBaseT enables the convergence of video and data, with the utmost flexibility provided by daisy-chaining and multi-streaming (Source: Valens) HDBaseT enables the convergence of video and data, with the utmost flexibility provided by daisy-chaining and multi-streaming (Source: Valens)
Another use is smart antennas. Risling said, “As HDBaseT has the ability to extend PCIe connection for up to 15m/50ft, enabling split telematic control units (TCUs). In this case, the modem units can stay on the roof, while the gateway can be placed inside of the car, closest to the infotainment and ADAS ECU, without having to handle the high temperatures and tight space on a car’s roof.  This reduces the number of components, cables and connectors necessary.”
HDBaseT for ADAS Networking can deliver real-time, no latency information from several cameras for a safer and better driving experience (Source: Valens)
HDBaseT for ADAS Networking can deliver real-time, no latency information from several cameras for a safer and better driving experience (Source: Valens) Arguing for HDBaseT, VSI Labs’ Kim summarized: There is “no need for close grounding; high-speed, future-proofed PHY; interoperability between chipset generations; faster everything (Internet, car maintenance updates, USB, smartphone connectivity), better ADAS (centralized video analytics with higher accuracy); less cables, lighter cables; lower fuel consumption.” Further, “HDBaseT network enables Ethernet switching thanks to its native Ethernet support,” in addition to “high-speed firmware update (via USB or 1GbE).”

What about cost?
Valens insists that HDBaseT brings a slew of cost advantages. Strategy Analytics’ Riches isn’t so sure.
Valens’ Risling pointed out, “Ability to transmit multigigabit data over unshielded twisted pair cables, a cheaper alternative to shielded cables and coax.” He stressed, “Alternative solutions — such as Automotive Ethernet and Serdes — are not able to transmit high bandwidth over unshielded cables.”
Further, “With daisy-chaining connectivity, HDBaseT can reduce the number and length of cables in the car, leading to lower weight and therefore better fuel efficiency,” said Risling. “Daisy-chain connectivity also simplifies connectivity architectures, reducing the number of chipsets necessary in a system.”
Finally, he pointed out, “HDBaseT can tunnel different native interfaces over the same cable and connectors — audio/video, Ethernet, controls, data (USB and PCIe, for example) and power, eliminating the need for different cables/connectors for each interface.” He added, “Again, this reduces the number of cables and other electronics and corresponding weight, simplifying the overall cable harness in the car. Alternative technologies usually require additional chipsets to tunnel different interfaces.”
Riches, on the other hand, believes price will be a hurdle for HDBaseT. He said, “Total system implementation cost is hugely important, but so is silicon cost. Saying, "the silicon is more expensive, but you’ll save in the long run…" can be a hard sell.”
VSI Labs’ Kim agreed. “You need a HDBaseT switch which could be costly and in each node of devices (sensor, display, etc) would need HDBaseT compatible chip components (e.g., PHY in case of Ethernet), resulting in added cost for the vehicle manufacturer,” he noted.
Indeed, asked about price, Valens Risling steered clear. “It is very difficult to come up with a specific number regarding cost, as each case is different from the next, and rely on a variety of factors, such as interfaces and bandwidth supported, volume etc.”

Challenges: Uncertainty in the market
Beyond the cost and the auto industry’s weariness with standards, there are a few other problems.
Strategy Analytics’ Riches cited the issue of “maturity and longevity.” He observed that HDBaseT is a relatively new approach initially centered on the consumer industry. “Consumer standards can come and go, but automotive needs something that will last.  At one stage IEEE 1394 Firewire was touted for automotive usage, when it was increasingly being used in consumer products. I’m guessing the auto industry is glad it didn’t go down that route now.”
It’s also tough to “make the case for high-bandwidth links and networks now,” said Riches. “Future use cases based on highly autonomous driving are easy to see — but will not emerge in high volume in the next five years. Many carmakers are still effectively designing around the need for high-speed links and thus putting in significant processing at each sensor to process the data.”
For HDBaseT to gain momentum, it needs multiple silicon vendors. Riches said, “Car makers do not like single-source.”
Beyond Valens, though, Riches said, “I have not seen any confirmation of automotive HDBaseT chips from others.” However, he added that NXP, the largest automotive semiconductor vendor and a leading player in automotive networking, is a contributor member of the HDBaseT Alliance.  STMicroelectronics is also an "adopter member."
Valens also sees challenges.
Risling, for example, cited “compartmentalized organizations” as a big hurdle when Valens goes out and tries to pitch HDBaseT. “OEMs have separate departments for each area — ADAS, infotainment, wire harness, etc. HDBaseT is a technology that is optimized not only to each of these connectivity needs, but also can optimize the integration of each of these resources in the car, leading to shared ECUs and storage, for example.” He said, “Being able to convey this message can be difficult when each department is detached from others.”
And then there’s “uncertainty in the market,” said Risling. “Although the connected car is the ultimate buzz in the market, there is still great uncertainty as to what and when things will happen,” he said. “OEMs and tier ones are still defining the most important needs, and we are working closely with them to be able to deliver what is needed when it is expected.”
Valens has become increasingly aware of the significance of “partnerships and alliances.” Risling explained, “As we further penetrate the market, the value of partnerships — with tier ones and tier twos, different standardization alliances, other chipset manufacturers — becomes increasingly clear.”
He said, “To succeed in this sector, it is important to identify the companies and organizations that can make a positive impact in our efforts, and work with them to achieve our goals.”
Risling said Valens, for example, is now working with the MIPI Alliance’s Automotive Work Group.
Junko Yoshida Chief International Correspondent, EE Times

VISTA – the world’s biggest competition for automotive technicians

postat 7 iul. 2018, 17:11 de Emil Francu

This week the final round of the world’s biggest skills competition for automotive technicians was arranged in Curitiba, Brazil. This year’s Volvo International Service Training Awards (VISTA) involved 19,700 participants from Volvo Trucks’ and Volvo Buses’ global service networks. After an exciting final round where the 40 best teams from the world went head to head, VIIES RATAS from Estonia clinched the victory.

“Qualified and motivated service technicians are among the most important success factors for our workshops and customers. That’s why we invest so heavily in continuous training and competence development. VISTA is the tip of the iceberg where all our service technicians every second year have the opportunity to test and prove their knowledge against their colleagues from around the world. The competition puts the spotlight on day-to-day work-related skills and crucial technical spearhead competence, it promotes cooperation and builds pride,” says Claes Nilsson, President Volvo Trucks.

The very first VISTA competition was held back in 1957. Since then the truck mechanic profession has turned into an automotive technician, the computer has become an essential tool in the workshop, and the profession has undergone a fundamental change from the ground up. Modern trucks are technically highly advanced machines that require a more comprehensive and wider type of expertise than before. Today technicians must be able to handle both mechanical and computer-related work. At the same time, razor-sharp competition in the transport industry has meant continuously growing customer demands for constant vehicle uptime.

“In principle, a truck always has to be ready to roll, which in practice means that the technicians have to carry out highly advanced and well-planned maintenance, they have to trouble-shoot, identify, analyse and rectify problems in the shortest possible time. Today there is no acceptance of long waiting times for service and repairs, there’s no tolerance for correct parts not being available or for a job not being done right the very first time the vehicle enters the workshop,” explains Martin Merrick, SVP Retail Development.

The theme for this year’s VISTA – "Performance is Everything" – is a perfect description of what it’s all about: in order for customers to be able to perform at their peak, our technicians must do so too.

“That’s exactly how it is – our goal is to have the world’s best service technicians servicing our customers’ vehicles. Through VISTA we aim to draw attention to and reward the vital work that our dealers and workshops do every single day, and at the same time attract new talent to an interesting and varied profession that has a great future,” says Anna Rogbrant, VISTA Project Manager.

Facts about VISTA

Stands for Volvo International Service Training Awards.
Skills competition open to service market personnel from Volvo Trucks and Volvo Buses globally.
Held every second year since 1957.
19,700 people from all over the world participated in this year’s competition.
240 teams with four participants in each team qualified for the semi-finals in Gothenburg.
40 teams took part in the finals in Curitiba.
The winner of this year’s competition was team VIIES RATAS from Estonia.
Members of the winning team:
Meelis Šmeiman (supervisor)
Madis Reinpõld (key technician)
Maksim Golenkov (technician)
Lauri Raamat (key technician)
Maksim Toots (Technical trainer)


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